Rugby Forecaster
The rugby predictor analyses the results of historical rugby matches both to forecast the results of future matches, but also understand trends and player strengths within each league.
The Matches
We use data from both international test matches and European domestic leagues. This allows us to track teams' performance over a long time period, and as teams play in different leagues (for example the URC and the European Champions Cup.)
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Season |
|---|
The Players
Where our database has it we are able to incorporate information about which players were on the pitch for each match, and infer their contribution to the match. This allows us to track the performance of individual players over their careers.
| Player | Apps | Seasons | Current Team | Attacking | Kicking |
|---|
Forecasting matches
We treat scoring in rugby matches as a Poisson process, and use the historical data to estimate the attacking and defensive strength of each team, and the strength of each player. We can then use this information to forecast the results of future matches, and understand the key factors which contribute to a team's success.
| Date | Home | Pred. Score | Pred. Score | Away | Home Win | Draw | Away Win |
|---|
Forecasting whole seasons
The model also allows us to predict the results of whole seasons, and understand how the league table is likely to evolve over the course of the season.