What a week. Not one but two shocking results, and both predicted (at least in terms of outcome) by the model. France still (just) topping the table, but grand slam hopes wrecked. Italy’s first ever win against England. After its week 3 wobble the model was back to a 100% success rate last week.

Ireland 32 – 28 Wales Ireland 70%
Scotland 29 – 25 France Scotland 55%
Italy 28 – 23 England Italy 57%

The model underestimated Scotland (though few would have predicted them getting a half-century of points over the line), overestimated Wales, and got the margin spot-on in that unlikely Italy-England game. Not bad.

But let’s look ahead to Super Saturday.

Ireland v Scotland

In almost all respects this is the biggest game of the day, as it’s likely to define who comes second. I’m predicting an Ireland win here, but with very low confidence. A Scotland win seals a top two finish for Scotland, but an Ireland win doesn’t bring them the same guarantee: they’ll need to deny Scotland a bonus point, or win a bonus point themselves to put themselves ahead. The result of this game could also determine who comes first, but for that we’ll need to wait for the outcome of the final match: if England deny France a win and a bonus point first place opens up. Ireland have a 6.1% chance of coming first, and 54.8% chance of finishing second. Scotland sit on a 17.4% chance of topping the table, and 21.7% chance of being runners-up. However, the single most probable final table has Scotland finishing second. So the model is hedging.

Wales v Italy

It’s fair to say every game this weekend is dramatic. For Wales it’s a chance to avoid the wooden spoon, for Italy the chance to come fourth. A bonus point for Wales could see them lift themselves to fifth, depending on how the England v France game goes. The model is somewhat favouring a Wales win here, but has Italy finishing fourth overall with 81% confidence.

England v France

To finish on peak drama, this game may well define both ends of the table. France are the model’s favourites to win the match with 67% confidence, and the Six Nations with 76.5% confidence. It also sees England finishing 5th, behind Italy, with 81% probability, or ahead of them in 4th with 19%.

With that, the actual predictions for this weekend:

Ireland 26 – 20 Scotland Ireland 59%
Wales 24 – 19 Italy Wales 63%
France 27 – 20 England France 64%

And the predicted final standings:

# Team Pts Wins +/−
1 France 20 4 87
2 Scotland 18 3 16
3 Ireland 17 4 21
4 Italy 11 2 -30
5 England 8 1 -4
6 Wales 4 1 -90